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澳大利亚网友评:中国真能在气候变化议题上发挥领导作用吗?

(译者:jiangye111)

Can China actually lead on climate change?

中国真能在气候变化议题上发挥领导作用吗?

Shifting the Chinese economy away fromfossil fuels puts jobs in carbon-intensive sectors at risk.

中国经济摆脱对化石燃料的依赖将导致煤碳密集型行业面临风险。

China is in the "driving seat"when it comes to "international co-operation" on climate, saidPresident Xi Jinping at a major political meeting in Beijing ahead of theUN-led climate talks in Bonn earlier this month, the first annual meeting ofthe negotiations since President Donald Trump announced his intention towithdraw from the agreement.

鉴于唐纳德•特朗普总统表明了退出协议的意愿,在本月上旬波恩举办联合国气候谈判第一次年会前,中国主席在北京召开的一次重要政治会议上称,在涉及气候议题的“国际合作”上,中国正在发挥“引领”作用。

Mr Trump's decision had left a powervacuum: the historic accord reached in 2014 between then president Barack Obamaand Mr Xi, leading the world's two largest economies, which together accountfor about 40 per cent of global emissions, had underpinned the consensusreached by the international community in late 2015 in Paris. Could China alonefill that vacuum?

特朗普先生的决定造成了一个权力真空:时任美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马和中国主席在2014年达成的历史性协议,这二人领导着世界上最大的两个经济体,两国温室气体排放约占全球40%,该协议支撑了国际社会于2015年底在巴黎达成的共识。中国能填补这一真空吗?

Presidents Obama and Xi reached a historicaccord on emissions.

奥巴马总统和中国就排放问题达成了历史性协议。

China certainly made its presence felt atthe talks, but often in its traditional stance as defender of the developingcountries, arguing that rich countries must shoulder the greater burden ofdecarbonisation, a position reportedly described by Greenpeace East Asiacampaigner Li Shuo as "an inevitable result of international climatediplomacy in the post-US era".

中国确实在谈判中彰显了它的存在感,但经常以其发展中国家捍卫者的传统立场,辩称富裕国家应该为发展低碳经济承担更大责任。据报道,东亚绿色和平组织的活动家Li Shuo将中国的立场称为“后美国时代国际气候外交的必然结果”。

China's carbon emissions have also risenthis year, after two years of slight decline.

在经历了两年的轻微下降之后,中国今年的碳排放量也有所上升。

Still, it is committed to peak before 2030, and it leads the world in cleantechnologies — accounting for five of the world's top six solar PVmanufacturers, and seven of the top-15 wind turbine manufacturers.

尽管如此,中国仍承诺(其碳排放量)在2030年前开始回落,并且中国也在清洁技术领域引领世界——全球前六大太阳能光伏制造商中有5家,以及前15家风力涡轮机制造商中有7家。

China is also investing more than $US100 billion a year in domestic renewableenergy projects — more than double the US figure. At about $US32 billion, itsinvestment in green technology overseas is also the largest in the world.

中国每年在国内可再生能源项目上的投资超过1000亿美元,是美国的两倍多。它的海外绿色技术投资规模也是全世界最大的,大约320亿美元。

Mr Xi has made environmental ambition asignature of his rhetoric, having coined the florid phrase, "clear watersand green mountains are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver". Bycontrast, the US President is not only averse to environmental regulation, buteven once tweeted, preposterously, that climate change is a Chinese hoax.

中国主席已将环保目标作为他的言论的一个标志,他有句名言“绿水青山就是金山银山”。相比之下,美国总统不仅反对环境监管,甚至还曾在推特上发了一条推文,荒谬地认为气候变化是中国的骗局。

So, is China ready to lead on climate? Not yet.

那么,中国准备好引领气候议题了吗?还没有。

Fossil fuel use maintains social stability

化石燃料的使用维持着社会稳定

To assume a real leadership role, Chinaneeds not only to fulfil its Paris pledges — no small challenge, given thedifficulty of shifting its huge economy away from a reliance on coal-firedenergy — but also to demonstrate a strategy for overseas investment that isconsistent with its environmental ambitions.

要成为一个真正的领导角色,中国不仅要履行巴黎承诺——一个不小的挑战,因为很难使其庞大的经济摆脱对燃煤能源的依赖——还要为海外投资活动展示符合其环保目标的策略。

Domestic local implementation tends to be a major problem for central plannersin China, and to shift the economy away from fossil fuels means bracing for thesocial stability risks of declining employment in carbon-intensive sectors. Anillustration of this was the recent approval by provincial authorities ofnumerous plans for new coal-fired power stations, which were later cancelled bysweeping central government decrees.

对于中国的中央规划者来说,国内的地方执行通常是一大难题,而且要使经济摆脱对化石燃料的依赖,就意味着要顶住碳密集型行业失业带来的社会稳定风险。其中一个例子是,省政府最近批准了许多新建燃煤发电站的计划,而这些计划后来被中央政府下令取消了。

On the international front, as China's energy-intensive sectors slow, there isa risk that companies such as those producing the technology to mine and burncoal find an escape valve for overcapacity by exporting capital and technologyoutside China's borders, driving carbon-intensive growth in other countries,particularly along the so-called "Belt and Road" trade routes in central,south and South-East Asia.

在国际方面,随着中国能源密集型行业增长放缓,还存在一种风险,即那些为采矿和燃煤研发技术的企业,为在产能过剩困局中寻找出路,将资金和技术输出到中国周边国家,引起其他国家碳密集型产业的扩张,尤其是所谓的“一带一路”沿线的中亚、南亚以及东南亚国家。

From 2000 to 2016, 66 per cent of powersector lending from Chinese banks went into coal projects, according to BostonUniversity.

根据波士顿大学的数据,从2000年到2016年,中国各银行发放的电力行业贷款中,有66%流向了煤炭项目。

In Turkey, Chinese companies have signed agreements worth billions of dollarsto construct coal-fired power stations.

在土耳其,中国企业签署了价值数十亿美元的协议,建设燃煤发电站。

In Pakistan, China has also approved a $US1.2 billion investment for coalmining in the Thar Desert and the construction of 660 megawatt coal-fired powergenerators.

在巴基斯坦,中国还批准了一项12亿美元的投资,用于在塔尔沙漠中开采煤矿,以及建设660兆瓦的燃煤发电机组。

Self-interest behind sustainability push

推动可持续性背后的自身利益

To call for greater attention to the sustainability of these investments is notto expect altruism from China: its domestic actions, after all, have beendriven thus far by a leadership that understands how lower carbon developmentbenefits technological innovation, energy efficiency and security, and airpollution mitigation — as well as helping to stave off dangerous future climateimpacts on food and water security.

不能指望呼吁更多关注这些投资的可持续性是源于中国的利他主义:毕竟中国的国内举措是由一个了解低碳发展如何有利于科技创新、提升能源效率与安全以及减少空气污染的领导阶层所领导的——这同样有助于避免未来危险的气候变化影响对食品和水安全造成威胁。

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As China's energy-intensive sectors slow,coal interests may look further afield, spreading along trade routes in Asia.

随着中国能源密集型行业的放缓,煤炭行业的投资可能会着眼于更远的地区,在亚洲贸易路线上延展。

Similarly, avoiding coal is a sensibleinvestment choice, as renewable energy costs continue to fall — in large partthanks to economies of scale in China — the burden of air pollution on healthand wellbeing becomes ever more apparent, and the risks of climate impacts risearound the world.

同样,避免使用煤炭是一个明智的投资选择,因为可再生能源成本持续下降——很大程度上要归功于中国的规模经济——空气污染对健康和幸福度的负面影响越来越显著,而全球气候影响的风险也在上升。

There is little question that China deserves praise when contrasted with MrTrump's retreat from climate action. As its economic power grows, it can beexpected to maintain active climate cooperation where it is advantageous, fortechnological, economic, and soft power purposes.

毫无疑问,与特朗普在气候变化问题上的退缩相比,中国值得称赞。随着中国经济实力的增长,人们可以预期,在技术、经济和软实力方面,它将保持积极的气候合作。

But unless China can implement its domestic energy transition to phase outcoal, and green its Belt and Road Initiative and overseas investment morebroadly, its rhetoric about playing a leading role on climate change globallyis unlikely to be realised.

但除非中国能够实现国内能源转型,逐步淘汰煤炭,并将其“一带一路”计划和海外投资更广泛地绿色化,否则,中国在全球气候变化问题上扮演主导角色的说法不太可能实现。

澳大利亚网贴翻译

Quiller6723hours ago
The advanced economies of the world becameadvanced by creating the bulk of the CO2 emissions since 1800. It is thereforereasonable to expect them to shoulder some of the cost of decarbonisingdeveloping economies. That the US has withdrawn from the climate mitigationsphere and left China in this position is deeply regrettable. China willinevitably use any influence it obtains to undermine international oppositionto its expansionist policies and its neglect of human rights.

自1800年以来,世界先进经济体通过制造大量二氧化碳排放(的工业化)而变得先进。因此,我们有理由期望它们承担一些发展中经济体脱碳化的成本。美国已经退出了减缓气候变化的领域,使中国处在这个位置,这是非常令人遗憾的。中国必然会利用它获得的一切影响力来削弱国际社会对其扩张性政策的反对,以及对人全的忽视。

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