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美版知乎:俄罗斯和中国,谁更强大

Who is more powerful, Russia or China?

俄罗斯VS中国,谁更强大?

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以下是Quora读者的评论:

Linus Skov, I live in Europe and I'm loving it

I'm going to say China, because it beats Russia in every factor that could affect international politics. China has a much larger population (10x that of Russia) and therefore also a lot more cultural influence (soft-power) in the neighbouring region. While it's certainly still influenced by Western culture, China has it's own version of pretty much every heritage that we think of as unique to Western culture. Russia is much more tied to European culture than any East Asian nation ever will be, because 70% of Russia's population live in Europe.

China has a more populous and military. It's technology and training still doesn't match the US, but China certainly rivals Russia in what matters most in modern warfare: power projection. It's also worth noting that Russia's military are suffering from demographic troubles, which is the reason that foreign nationals are now able to enter the armed forces.

我认为是中国,因为在所有可能影响国际政治的因素上中国都比俄罗斯更强。中国有更多的人口(是俄罗斯的10倍),因此在周边地区也有更多的文化影响力(软实力)。虽然中国也受到西方文化的影响,但对于我们认为的西方文化几乎所有特有传统,中国都有自己的版本。俄罗斯与欧洲文化的联系比与任何东亚国家都要紧密得多,因为俄罗斯70%的人口生活在欧洲。

中国的人口和军队规模更大。中国的技术和训练仍然无法与美国匹敌,但在现代战争中最关键的因素上,中国肯定能与俄罗斯匹敌:那就是军事实力的展示。同样值得注意的是,俄罗斯军队正遭受人口结构的困局,这也是外国人现在也能进入俄罗斯军队的原因。

China has more allies, even though it never gets close to the Western alliance system of the EU, the Anglosphere, Japan, South Korea and the Gulf States. Russia's geopolitical area of influence isn't really something to be proud of. Even though it has good diplomatic relations with a number of nations, it's only has actual influence on five rather insignificant nations :(on the international stage, that is) Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazahstan (members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization)

China obviously also beats the living daylights out of Russia in industrial capacity and economic health. China has a much larger and more stable economy, that notably isn't in a recession, unlike Russia's. China has behaved lately and has much better relations with the West, meaning no sanctions from the world's largest economies, which has been one of Russia's great perils.

Overall, I'd say China is much more influential on the world stage, even when it doesn't attempt to intervene in conflicts and expand it's area of influence.

中国拥有更多的盟友,尽管它从未接近过欧盟、英语文化圈、日本、韩国和海湾国家的西方联盟体系。俄罗斯在地缘政治领域的影响力并不是什么值得骄傲的事情。尽管它与许多国家有良好的外交关系,但它对五个不太重要的国家(在国际舞台上,即亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦,即欧亚经济联盟和集体安全条约组织的成员国)有着实际的影响力。

中国在工业产能和经济健康方面也明显胜过俄罗斯。中国的经济规模要大得多,也更稳定,明显没有陷入衰退,这一点与俄罗斯不同。中国最近表现良好,与西方的关系也要好得多,这意味着世界上最大的几个经济体不会对中国实施制裁,而制裁一直是俄罗斯面临的最大威胁之一。

总的来说,我认为中国在世界舞台上的影响力要大得多,即便它不试图介入冲突,扩大自己的影响范围也是如此。

 

Robin Sparkes, Student of History & Politics

‘Power’ is roughly the ability of one state to influence another, or to influence the outcome of something. Both China and Russia have the ability to do these things.

To put it bluntly, Russia can influence most of the states around it in various ways- (E. European states, C. Asian states, certain client states etc) through military force and prowess, even by the exploits of its weapons market. China can however influence most of the countries around the world to varying degrees by way of economic strength.

Militarily, the Russian Federation, despite its financial limitations is still the world’s no.2 power, managing to use the behemoth armed forces left to them by the Soviet Union to thriftily modernise and streamline. Arguably the world’s leading nuclear- armed power, the Russians dont need to spend in the trillions to maintain a high level of lethality. The Chinese are indeed a nuclear power, and modernising, but the Russians learned a lot during the Cold war and know their enemies well and how to defeat them. China’a military budget is bigger than Russia’s but traditionally the Chinese have required Soviet/ Russian assistance to arm them and are only just moving towards a more domestic procurement policy.

“势力”大致是一个国家影响另一个国家或影响某事结果的能力。中国和俄罗斯都有能力做到这些。

坦率地说,俄罗斯可以通过军事实力,甚至通过开发其武器市场,以各种方式影响其周边的大多数国家(欧洲国家、亚洲国家、某些附庸国等)。但中国可以通过经济实力在不同程度上影响全球绝大多数国家。

在军事上,俄罗斯联邦尽管财政有限,仍然是世界第二大国,利用苏联留给他们的庞大武装力量实现现代化。可以说,俄罗斯是世界上一流的核武器国家,不需要花费上万亿美元来维持高水平的杀伤能力。中国确实是一个核大国,正在逐步实现现代化,但是俄国人在冷战期间学到了很多,很了解他们的敌人,很清楚该如何打败他们。中国的军事预算比俄罗斯的要多,但传统上,中国需要苏联/俄罗斯的援助来武装自己,而且一心想着尽快实现军火国产化。

Economically Russia is a country that has had to learn from the bottom how to have a free market economy- only since 1991 was their economy based on free markets and have been decimated by the post- Soviet breakup of their once- mighty resources; they have still much to learn about it. The Chinese however saw during the 1960s the flaws of the planned economy and have slowly transitioned into a Closed- free market economic juggernaut- 2nd only to the United States itself. They reformed their economic model painfully and it has borne wonderful fruit;. Therefore China is unprecedented in their economic revival, and as such has a far more global reach and influence.

Politically they’re relatively even as they both have a permanent seat and a Veto in the UN security council. Their recent closer ties owing to American and EU pressures is sure to provide each other with their strengths and weaknesses- a huge market for Russian energy resources and a close military power for protection and assistance, as well as an ally at the UN.

在经济方面而言,俄罗斯是一个不得不从零开始,学习如何打造自由市场经济的国家——直到1991年,他们的经济才得以在自由市场的基础上建立起来,而苏联后,他们一度强大的资源遭到了严重的破坏;他们仍然有很多东西要学。但中国在20世纪60年代就意识到了计划经济的缺陷,逐渐转变为一个封闭的自由市场经济大国,仅次于美国。他们痛苦地改革了经济模式,并取得了良好的成果。因此,中国在经济复苏方面是前所未有的,因此在全球范围内具有更大的影响力。

就政治方面而言,他们不相上下,尽管他们在联合国安理会都占据常任理事国席位,都有否决权。由于美国和欧盟的压力,他们最近的关系更加紧密,肯定会互相提供各自的优势和劣势——俄罗斯能源资源的巨大市场,能提供保护和援助的紧密的军事力量,并成为联合国内的盟友。

 

Alex Jouravlev, From 0 to 30 in Russia. A long time ago.

Russia is stronger in nuclear strike, and has much superior in second strike capability. She still has better weaponry - however China is catching up, and possibly stronger elite forces - definitely more experienced.

As far as economic power and influence go, China is stronger by far. They are not in the same category, really. Not only other countries seek Chinese investments, they increasingly want China to do things for them.

Ability to execute is once again incomparable. If Russia asked China to build a brindge or tunnel to Crimea, it would be possibly ready by now.

As far as governance and strategic vision, China is also leagues ahead. In projection of power, China leads with economy - something Russians don't even understand,

俄罗斯的核打击能力更强,第二次打击能力也更强。俄罗斯有更精良的武器装备——不过中国正在迎头赶上,而且精英部队可能更强大——肯定更有经验。

就经济实力和影响力而言,中国要强大得多。它们真的不在同一个水平线上。不仅其他国家希望从中国获得投资,他们也越来越希望中国能为他们做些事情。

中国的执行力也无人能及。如果俄罗斯之前开口让中国修建一条通往克里米亚的布林吉或隧道,现在可能都已经建好了。

在治理和战略眼光方面,中国也处于领先地位。在国力水平方面,中国在经济上领先——这是俄罗斯人根本无法理解的

 

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