西诺网

美版知乎:到2030年,中国还会是世界制造业中心吗

Will China still be the world's manufacturing center in 2030?

2030年中国还会是世界制造业中心吗?

u=2619955970,3660373034&fm=26&gp=0.jpg

以下是Quora读者的评论:

Paul Denlinger, Have worked in several China internet startups

Yes, but it will be fundamentally different from what it is now.

Here is my thesis:

是的,但根本上将跟现在不同了。

以下是我的评论:

Chinese economic development up until now was based on two major premises:

截至目前为止,中国的经济发展基于两个主要前提:

1.The consumer economy where economic growth is dominated by consumer spending. This reached its peak in 1999, when US consumer spending reached its peak, but had been on a steady slowdown till 2008, and then collapsed in that year. The western economies would continue to be leading consumer economies.

1.以消费支出为主导的消费经济。这种情况在1999年达到峰值,当时美国消费者支出达到峰值,但在2008年之前一直稳步放缓,然后在2008年崩溃。西方经济体将继续引领消费经济。

2.Low energy costs based on coal and other fossil fuels.

2.基于煤炭和其他化石燃料的低能源成本。

Let me be clear about two things:

我要跟大家说清楚两件事:

1.I don't believe that the consumer economy will ever return to what it was like before because the global economy is undergoing fundamental changes. The US Fed and the Chinese government have basically been trying to beat life into a dead horse by trying to revive western consumer spending. Instead, the global economy is heading into a prolonged period of falling birth rates, and changes in human immigration patterns which will be caused by political factors and global warming. The consumer economy will no longer exist as the Fed and US economic observers think it will, and the sooner they own up to this new normal, the better. Beijing realizes that the western consumer economies are basically history, which is why it is trying to encourage Chinese consumer spending so that China is less reliant on manufacturing.

1.我不相信消费经济会恢复原来的水平,因为全球经济正在经历根本性的变化。美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)和中国基本上一直试图通过重振西方消费者支出。但是全球经济正进入一个出生率持续下降的时期,政治因素和全球变暖将导致人类移民模式发生改变。消费经济将不再像美联储和美国经济观察人士认为的那样继续存在,他们越早承认这一新常态越好。中国意识到,西方消费经济基本上已经成为历史,这就是为什么它试图鼓励中国消费者支出,以减少中国对制造业的依赖。

2.We are at the tipping point when it comes to energy costs, and within 20-30 years we will have a new situation: new free non-polluting energy mainly from solar.

This brings us back to the original question: Will China still be the manufacturing center of the world in 2030.

2.在能源成本方面,我们正处于一个转折点,在20-30年内,我们将面临一个新局面:新的免费无污染能源主要来自太阳能

这让我们回到了最初的问题:到2030年,中国还会是世界制造业中心吗?

My answer is yes, for two reasons:

我的回答是肯定的,原因有二:

1.All the major supply chains for manufacturing are in China. At a time when manufacturers are getting close to zero inventory costs in manufacturing, this is becoming more important. Just look at the manufacturing centered around Shenzhen, Zhengzhou and Chengdu which are built up around iPhone manufacturing. Twenty years ago, this scale of manufacturing would not have been possible anywhere in the world, but China, Foxconn and Apple have made it possible now because their supply chains and large supplies of labor are all centered there.

1.所有主要的制造供应链都在中国。在制造商的制造成本趋近于零的时候,这一点变得越来越重要。只要看看以深圳、郑州和成都为中心的制造业就知道了,它们都是围绕iPhone制造而建立起来的。20年前,这种规模的制造在世界上任何地方都是不可能的,但中国、富士康和苹果现在做到了,因为它们的供应链和大量劳动力都集中在那里。

2.Within ten years, China will begin to offer free electricity and energy to major manufacturers as more of the Chinese electricity grid switches to solar, wind and nuclear. New supply chain parks will form around these free energy grids.

2.随着中国电网更多地转向太阳能、风能和核能,中国将在10年内开始向主要制造商提供免费电力和能源。新的供应链园区将围绕这些免费的能源网络形成。

As China moves to a free energy economy, more investment money will be drawn into China, sucking the energy out of other economies.

随着中国转向自由能源经济,更多的投资资金将从其他经济体抽离,引入到中国。

At the same time, China will play an instrumental role in developing the new economy formed around free energy.

与此同时,中国将在围绕自由能源形成的新经济发展中发挥重要作用。

The lesson for the US is clear: the US government should work towards building a free energy economy, not just for manufacturing, but for all Americans.

美国从中得到的教训是显而易见的:美国政府应该努力打造一个自由能源经济,不仅是为了制造业,而是为了所有美国人。

There is another lesson here: hoarding capital is becoming less important. As hoarding capital becomes less important, Wall Street will have less influence. As Wall Street becomes less important, fewer of the best and the brightest will head for Wall Street.

这里还有一个教训:囤积资本正变得越来越不重要。随着囤积资本变得没那么重要,华尔街的影响力将会减弱。随着华尔街变得不再那么重要,涌向华尔街的最优秀、最聪明的人才将越来越少。

This is already happening, and is the best hope for the revival of US manufacturing.

这种情况现在就已经发生了,而且是美国制造业复苏的最大希望。

 

Robbie Jena, Industrial Ecosystems and Strategy Architect

Will China still be the world's manufacturing center in 2030?

2030年中国还会是世界制造业中心吗?

YES. and for the next 300 years barring any major war.

是的。在接下来的300年里都会如此,除非发生重大战争。

That does not mean rest of the countries are useless…

但这并不意味着其他国家一无是处……

Next two that will get along will be USA and India.

紧随其后的两个国家将是美国和印度。

India will take some time due to their social structure but sooner or later will catch up to China.

由于他们的社会结构,印度还需要一些时间,但迟早会赶上中国。

It is because Population for China and India.

这是因为中国和印度的人口规模。

And Language advantage of USA along with serious immigration and World Economy management.

另外美国拥有语言优势,以及严格的移民政策和世界经济管理。

USA will do better if they go by Meritocracy than China does….

如果美国采用精英管理体制,他们会比中国做得更好…

In the future, I will still come back to USA.

未来,我仍然会回到美国。

 

James Conway, studied Science & Business at The Evergreen State College

No. The reason is nations will become aware that tinkering by engineers in manufacturing is the prime force of innovation. No nation will then allow the important manufacturing jobs of high tech and innovation to go outside their national boundaries. I am not talking about iron hangers.

不会。原因在于,各国将意识到,制造业工程师的修修补补是创新的主要动力。到那时,没有一个国家会允许高科技和创新等重要制造业岗位走出国门。我说的可不是铁衣架哦。

The present condition was created by the billionaires desire to get cheap labor and make themselves richer and labor poorer and not have influence in governmental affairs. This is the end path of all empires that die. The difference is that America was never a land empire like all the previous ones. As badly as we have been mauled by these idiots we can still climb out of the hole they put us in.

这种现状正是由于亿万富翁们想要获得廉价劳动力,让自己更富有,让劳动者更贫穷,对政府事务毫无影响力的欲望造成的。这是所有帝国灭亡的终点。不同的是,美国从来就不像历史上的其他帝国。尽管我们被这些白痴打得遍体鳞伤,我们还是可以从他们给我们挖的坑里爬出来。

Mind you America does not have to do this all at once. Just make important manufacturing technics as unexportable and make government purchases to be only American made. That is 30% of the economy and it would be a good thing for America to be able to be totally self-sufficient. The Armed Forces & Pentagon need American made computers.

请注意,美国不必一次性完成所有这些。让重要的制造技术无法出口,让政府采购的只有美国制造。这占了美国经济的30%,如果美国能够完全自给自足,那将是一件好事。军队和五角大楼需要美国制造的电脑。

 

Mark Dallas, Professor,Political Science & Asian Studies,Union College NY

I would think so, but I’m not sure that is the right question:

我觉得会,但我不确定这个问题是否正确:

1.China’s population is huge, so it should be the “largest” in EVERYTHING. Even with low productivity, a massive population with a little bit of manufacturing capabilities should be world-leading.

1.中国人口众多,所以在任何方面都应该是“最大”的。即使是在生产率低下的情况下,拥有少量制造能力的庞大人口也应该是世界领先的。

2.Manufacturing itself is becoming less and less important, so advanced countries are better off getting rid of many types of manufacturing (but not all). The US economy is 80% services, so the fact that we still produce so much manufactured goods in a very small portion of our economy points to the high levels of productivity of our industries. (yes, our large population compared to Germany or Japan also helps, so best to look at all of this data on a per capita basis.

2.制造业本身正变得越来越不重要,因此发达国家最好摆脱多种类型的制造业(但不是全部)。美国经济的80%是服务业,所以占我们经济的很小一部分就能生产如此多的制成品,这一事实表明我们的工业生产力水平是很高的。(是的,与德国或日本相比,我们庞大的人口也有帮助,所以最好看人均数据。

3.Technology is shifting such that information is the new critical commodity, not goods and services. I would classify data as a new sector, not just throw it under services (which itself is a seriously problematic category of analysis). So, when one looks to the future, consider data, its collection, manipulation and usages as the core of the economy, not the physical stuff of manufacturing. China does have some data giants, but they are giants only within China…thus far.

3.科技正在发生变化,信息成为新的关键商品,而不是商品和服务。我会把数据归类为一个新的领域,而不是简单地把它归入服务业(服务业本身就是一个问题严重的分析类别)。因此,当人们展望未来时,要把数据、数据的收集、操作和使用作为经济的核心,而不是制造业的物质基础。中国确实有一些数据巨头,但迄今为止,它们还只是中国国内的巨头而已。

 

转载请注明出处!:首页 > 网贴翻译 > 美国 » 美版知乎:到2030年,中国还会是世界制造业中心吗