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印度GDP增长率被高估了,印网友热议

Arvind Subramanian defends his GDP overestimation argument

阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚坚称:印度GDP增长率被高估了

Defending his argument that India's GDP growth overestimated by 2.5%, former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian said that he had used a specific framework to validate GDP from demand side. He also said that tools like GDP deflator could have been underestimated.

Lending more credence to his GDP argument, he said that no country has grown over 7 per cent with exports below 5 per cent.

India's sustained high GDP growth post 2011, despite macro shocks unlike large emerging markets an indicator, said former CEA.

前首席经济顾问阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚坚称印度GDP增长率被高估了2.5%,称他采用了特别的结构,从需求方面验证GDP。他还表示,GDP平减指数等工具可能被低估了。

他表示,没有哪个国家能在出口低于5%的情况下GDP增长超过7%,这更印证了他有关GDP的观点。

前首席经济顾问表示,尽管遭受了宏观冲击,但与其他大型新兴市场不同的是,印度在2011年后GDP持续高速增长。

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In his latest research paper, the former chief economic advisor said India’s GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 was probably bumped up by about 2.5 per cent.

Days after Arvind Subramanian's argument, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) came out with an eight-point rebuttal to the former chief economic advisor claims on growth estimates.

The PMEAC rebuttal read "given the fact that his paper lacks rigour in terms of specific data sources and description, alternative hypothesis, rationale of equation specifications, use of dummies, and robustness-check diagnostics of estimated equations, and choice of countries in the sample and a specific list, it would not stand the scrutiny of academic or policy research standards."

在他最新的研究报告中,这位前首席经济顾问表示,印度2011年至2012年、2016年至2017年的GDP增速可能被高估了约2.5%。

在阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚发表上述言论几天后,印度总理经济顾问委员会对这位前首席经济顾问有关经济增长预期的说法提出了8点反驳。

印度总理经济顾问委员会反驳“鉴于他的论文在具体数据来源和描述、替代假设、计算方式的基本原理、样本和国家选择等方面缺乏严谨性,因此不符合学术或政策研究标准的审查标准。”

印度经济时报读者的评论:

译文来源:三泰虎      http://www.santaihu.com/48027.html     译者:Joyceliu

外文链接:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com

Inder Jeet Giroh

M/s Chidrambrurm, Rehuram Rajan,Arvind Subramanian and Dr Manmohan Singh ji were at the helm of affairs, huge bublic funds were given to unscrupulous people. The data was shown as 11 per cent growth. The sectors like Agriculture, Micro Small and Medium industry were ignored. Thus those dishonest entities who were given huge loans without any scrutiny, defrauded the public and siphoned of funds to foreign lands.This had been continuing for too long. The Econmy was mishandled. The benifit of loans did not result in creating employment. An artificial narrative was engineered that the Economy was growing at a faster rate. Now it is well known that huge NPAS are due to dishonest and corrupt bankers, political entities as well as Govt functioneries. The Banking Sector has been damaged to such an extent that it will take a lot of time before it regain s good health. I am at a loss how people like Chidrambrurm and others are criticising the present Government regularly by writing articles in some prominent News Papers. I would request such gentlemen to allow the present authorities to cure the past ills so that we attain a rapid all round growth.

Chidrambrurm、Rehuram Rajan、Arvind Subramanian和Manmohan Singh ji博士掌管着事务,大量的泡沫资金被授予寡廉鲜耻的人身上。数据显示,经济增长了11%。农业、微型中小企业等行业被忽略了。因此,那些没有经过审查就被授予巨额贷款的不良企业,欺骗了公众,并把资金抽向国外。这种情况已经持续太久了。贷款带来的收益并没有创造就业。一种捏造的说法是,经济正在以更快的速度增长。现在众所周知,庞大的不良资产是由无信和腐败的银行家、政治实体以及政府职能部门造成的。银行业受到如此严重的损害,要想恢复活力还需要很长时间。我不知道像Chidrambrurm这样的人是如何通过在知名报纸上发表文章,定期批评现任政府的。我请求这些先生们允许现在的当局疗愈过去的痼疾,以便我们实现全面的迅速增长。

 

 ashok desai

ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN IS TOTALLY WRONG. HE HAS NO IDEA OF INDIAN SCINORIO.Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of final goods and services produced within a given country''s borders. It is the most popular method of measuring an economy''s output and is therefore considered a measure of the size of an economy.SERVICE IS NOT MEASURED IN INDIA, AS 85% LABOUR FORCES ARE IN UNORGANISED SECTORS AND NOT COUNTED.SMALL EXAMPLE:MY SERVANT WORKS IN SIX HOUSEHOLDS AND EARNS 36,000 PER MONTH = RS. 432000/- PER YEAR. MY COOK - SHEE WORKS FOR SEVEN FAMILIES AND EARNS 45000/- PER MONTH = 540,000/- PER YEAR.MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF SUCH PERSONS ARE WORKING.MILLIONS ARE WORKING IN AGRICULTURE SECTORS,MILLIONS WORKS IN SMALL FACTORIES AND HANDICRAFT INDUSTRIES AND ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.REAL GDP OF INDIA IS NOT LESS THAN 12% - TAKING ALL GOODS AND SERVICES - CORRECTLY ACCOUNTED FOR.

阿文德·萨勃拉曼尼亚完全错了。他对印度的情况一无所知。国内生产总值(GDP)衡量的是一个国家境内生产的最终产品和服务的总价值。它是衡量经济产出的最主流的方法,因此被认为是衡量经济规模的手段。印度没有对服务业进行统计,因为85%的劳动力来自无组织的部门,并没有计算在内。举个例子:我的佣人在六户人家工作,每月收入36000卢比,也即432000卢比每年。我的厨师为7个家庭工作,月薪45000,也即54万每年。这样的劳动者有数以百万计。还有数以百万计的人从事农业部门、小工厂和手工业的工作,但没有被统计在内。印度的实际GDP(包括所有商品和服务)肯定不会低于12%。

 

Srinivasan Venkataraman

This govt is not renewing your contract .You can go to USA . We dont want you. We know how to take care of ourselves. A traitor should not bother to teach us right and wrong

政府不会续聘你的。你可以去美国。我们不需要你。我们知道如何照顾自己。你这个卖国贼,不用费心教我们分辨对错。

 

Sundarv

Leaving aside the specifics of the claims made by Arvind Subramanian, the general impression is that the figures have been overstated in recent years. The claims of high growth remain suspect.

撇开阿文德•萨勃拉曼尼亚声明的细节不谈,总体印象是,这些数字近年来确实被夸大了。高增长的说法仍然令人怀疑。

 

Inder Jeet Giroh

I am in complete support of views stated by MrKabir Kakkar.

我完全支持卡比尔·卡卡尔先生所说的观点。

 

The Other Angle

At least someone is speaking the truth. Better late than never

至少有人在说真话。亡羊补牢,为时未晚。

 

Ajit Grewal

We know who have been providing false information and promises to India - this is a ridiculous debate

我们知道是谁一直在向印度提供虚假信息和承诺——这是一场荒谬的辩论。

 

indian010101

The internet army of the current govt will ensure that no criticism is permitted. The govt is always right and performs wonderfully. Everyone else will be questioned on motives and competence.

现任政府的互联网水军会确保网上不能出现任何负面评论。政府总是对的,而且表现出色。其他所有人的动机和能力都会被他们质疑。

 

aishvaraya gupta

too late for all this, manipulated data fudging will go on

但为时已晚的是,被操纵的数据造假还将继续。

 

Aditya Loha

So now he has more knowledge than others, that also at this time. Where was he earlier when data was coming similar in previous years

这么说,现在他比别人更懂咯。那么前几年数据高估时,他在哪儿呢?

 

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