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美版知乎:如果印度不跟中国做生意,会对中国和印度的经济造成什么影响

If India stops trading with China, how will it effect the Chinese and Indian economies?

如果印度不跟中国做生意,会对中国和印度的经济造成什么影响?

QUORA网站读者评论:

Kingshuk Bandyopadhyay, MSc Economics

Very little. India buys just 2.2% of Chinese exports

For Indian consumers, it will be quite hard to find alternate sources of these goods. Chinese firms are the dominant producers of a lot of goods that India buys from them, like computers, phones, integrated circuits, factory machines, networking equipment etc.Some of these are not even manufactured anywhere else anymore (at that scale), so the options will be some combination of - (a) pay higher price, (b) buy inferior products , (c) stop using them altogether.

If Chinese consumers boycott Indian products, India will lose 4.8% of its exports.Proportionally, it will hurt the Indian economy bit more than it will hurt Chinese economy. Moreover, Indian exports to China are mainly commodities like cotton, copper, iron ore, granite, petroleum etc. It is easier to find alternate sources of these.

影响很小。在中国出口商品中,印度进口的只占了2.2%。

对于印度消费者来说,很难找到这些商品的替代物。中国企业是印度采购大量产品的主要生产商,如计算机、电话、集成电路、工厂机器、网络设备等。[2]其中一些甚至在其他地方没有生产(如此大规模生产),所以印度只有几种选择:(a)支付更高的价格,(b)购买劣质产品,(c)不再用这些商品。

如果中国消费者抵制印度产品,印度将损失4.8%的出口额。[3]按比例计算,印度经济受到的伤害比中国经济受到的伤害要大。此外,印度对华出口主要是棉花、铜、铁矿石、花岗岩、石油等商品。

India will lose more than China economically. Politically of course it is terrible optics and childish, à la Donald Trump.

Thankfully none of the above will happen. This sort of nationalism is popular on the internet, not in real life. In real life, people will still need their smart phones and computers to post nationalistic slogans on Facebook. And without those cheap Huawei routers fewer people will be online.

印度经济损失将超过中国。这在政治上非常幼稚,就像唐纳德特朗普一样。

谢天谢地,这些情况都不会发生。这种民族主义在网络上很流行,但在现实生活中行不通。现实生活中,人们仍然需要他们的智能手机和电脑才能在Facebook上高呼民族主义口号。如果没有这些便宜的华为路由器,上网的人就没那么多了。

 

Jayant Roy, works at Shipping Corporation of India

Lets start with how it will affect India:

Boycotting China will have a devastating effect for India, now and definitely in the future. An agrarian country that has catapulted into the ranks for a near developed country in such a short time speaks volumes for the people of that country. Take infrastructure. China is said to build small cities in 22 months and much before it is even required by the population. New empty cities stand waiting for people to move in as the development behemoth moves along. I have personally visited 2 new cities and they are beautiful. Ports are being developed at a rapid pace. Roads are incomparable and the railways are state of the art and the railway technology is not copied, it is own development. High speed trains connect most of the big cities. These technological advanced goods and services are cheap, instead of buying Japanese, western European or US, it would be preferred to buy from China. Next are the power plants, again cheap.

If India wants to progress rapidly, then at present the only solution is to embrace the Chines manufacture and technology. India can beat the drum after we really have had some domestic technological advancement and real manufactures, wherein we capture some of the world trade.

Most of the advanced goods are produced in China under license from the rest of the world, the finish is awesome and the goods are reliable (of course, if you want really cheap products, then do not expect really good items), Lenovo and Apple do outsource from China, so do not denigrate Chinese manufacturing.

译文来源:三泰虎    http://www.santaihu.com/46669.html       译者:Joyceliu

我们先来看看印度会遭受什么样的影响吧:

现在,而且将来一定也是,抵制中国将对印度产生破坏性的影响。一个农业国家在如此短的时间内跃升为近发达国家,对那个国家的人民来说意义重大。以基础设施为例。据说中国能在22个月内建起一座小城市。随着发展的脚步,新的空城等待着人们迁入。我亲身参观过两座新城,都很漂亮。港口的发展速度很快。道路无与伦比,铁路技术是当前最先进的,铁路技术并非照抄照搬,而是自己研发的。动车连接起了大多数大城市。这些技术先进的商品和服务很便宜,与其买日本、西欧或美国,不如从中国引进。其次是发电厂,也是很便宜。

如果印度想要快速发展,那么目前唯一的解决办法就是拥抱中国的制造业和技术。在我们本土技术真的取得进步、拥有真正的制造业之后,印度可以敲锣打鼓,从全球贸易中分一杯羹。

大部分的先进产品是中国在其他国家的许可下生产的,成品很棒,还可靠(当然,如果你只想要便宜货,那么就不要妄想有真正的好质量了),联想和苹果从中国外包生产,所以不要诋毁中国的制造业。

Next is the products that China produces are innovative and labour saving and sometime cost 1/10th the original cost.

So, India can boycott Chinese goods but this will come at a great cost.

For China, India is a “another country from which some goods are imported” not a critical country and a loss of Indian market will not set back the Chinese economy.

Reference, just look at the data for 2013, the exports from the Chinese ports within the top 10 ports in the world as per cargo handling:

No. 1 Shanghai 697 million tonnes (all figures rounded off)

No. 3 Tianjin 477 million tonnes

No. 4 Guangzhou 473 million tonnes

  1. 5 Quindao 450 million tonnes

No. 7 Ningbo 399 million tonnes

No. 9 Dalian 321 million tonnes

Please compare this with TOTAL cargo handled by ALL the major Indian ports (12 in all) in 2013: 546 million tonnes

SO is there a need to compare or discuss, which country will be affected?

其次,中国生产的产品具有创新性,节省劳动力,有时劳动力成本只是原成本的1/10。

因此,印度可以抵制中国商品,但这将付出巨大的代价。

对于中国来说,印度是一个“进口某些商品的某个国家”,并不是重要国家,失去印度市场的并不会阻碍中国经济的发展。

参考资料,看看2013年的数据,按货物装卸量算,世界前十个港口中,中国港口的出口量如下:

第一、上海6.97亿吨

第三、天津4.77亿吨

第四、广州4.73亿吨

第五、青岛 4.5亿吨

第七、宁波3.99亿吨

第九、大连3.21亿吨

请将这一数字与2013年印度所有主要港口(总共12个)处理的货物总和进行比较:5.46亿吨。

所以哪个国家会受到影响,还需要对比或讨论么?

 

Varun Pratap Singh, A fine line separates patriotism and jingoism, I seldom care where I stand

Everytime China does something sinister, this “boycott Chinese goods" campaign starts. People must understand that Chinese goods are not merely Chinese cheap mobile phones or some lame electronics.

Check out your home, office college for any type of electronic and electrical goods. Note down how many of them are MADE IN CHINA. From where do people think that most of our laptops, pc (lenovo, Dell, hp,Mac any brand), mobiles (Samsung, Sony, LG any other), PlayStations, iphones etc etc come from? Even mobile chargers, adapters, earphones.

Now run another search for iron, mixer grinders, nail cutters, razors, blades, knives and similar items and note down things which are MADE IN CHINA.

If you think that's all, Chinese goods have made considerable inroads into our diwali decorations, plaster of Paris idols and various other accessories which we fail to notice.

每次中国做什么坏事,就会有人开始搞“抵制中国货”的运动。但是大家得明白,中国商品不单单是廉价的手机或一些蹩脚的电子产品。

看看你家、办公室、学校里的一切电子和电器产品。记一下有多少是中国制造的。我们的笔记本电脑、个人电脑(联想、戴尔、惠普、苹果等品牌)、手机(三星、索尼、LG等)、游戏机、iphone等都是哪儿来的?更不用说手机充电器,适配器,耳机。

现在再看看熨斗、搅拌器、指甲刀、剃须刀、刀片、刀子等等,记下中国制造的东西有多少。

如果你以为这就完了,那我要告诉你,中国商品已大量侵入我们的迪瓦利装饰品、巴黎石膏像和其他各种我们没有注意过的饰品。

People may argue that most of the goods mentioned above are replaceable and their Indian made alternative are available. Indeed.

This amount of Chinese influence in the Indian market is the result of years, if not decades of business. Statistically speaking, Indian trade deficit with China is around 50billion us dollars in the favour of China. That means Chinese imports in India are valued 50billion us dollars more than Indian exports to China.

Even If we consider that we successfully boycott Chinese goods, economically it will hurt India. Because it will take Indian manufacturers years to fill the supply gap. The tremendous supply -demand mismatch will continue for years, and in the meantime, all such products will see their prices skyrocket and indian public will feel the burn.

We must first atleast get at par with China on the manufacturing front, if not ahead of it, before such adventurism.

“Statistics may hurt, but they don't lie”.

人们可能会争辩说,上述大多数商品是可替代的,印度制造有替代品。的确。

中国对印度市场的这种影响力是多年商业活动的结果。据统计,印度对中国的贸易逆差约为500亿美元。这意味着印度从中国进口的金额比印度对中国的出口额高出500亿美元。

即使我们认为我们成功地抵制了中国商品,经济上也会对印度造成伤害。因为印度的制造商需要几年的时间来填补供应缺口。巨大的供需失调将持续数年时间,所有这些产品的价格将飞涨。

我们必须首先在制造业方面达到与中国同等的地位。

“统计数据可能会令人痛心,但他们不会撒谎。”

 

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