Is Vietnam the next China economy?
译文来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46215.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
Thuong Tran, Born in Vietnam, live in 'Murica; Patriot to both!
There's many similarities but also key differences between Vietnam and China, saying Vietnam is the next China economy has some truth to it, but I don't think so completely.
- socialist states which have opened up to free markets ever since reforms
- Very similar political system
- Large populations
- Rapid GDP growth
- China’s population is around 15 times bigger than Vietnam’s
You may have noticed that I only listed one thing in the differences section, and yes, that was on purpose. The key factor to why Vietnam will not become the next China economy is because Vietnam does not have as much potential as China does based on population. Whilst Vietnam’s population is huge espieically considering the land mass, Vietnam just doesn't have the manpower to grow like China has. In fact, it is often argued that the major reason to why China has been so economically successful, is purely due to its crazy huge billion plus population.
I definitely think Vietnam can grow tremendously, but I doubt we will be able to have an economy as big as China’s, however I do believe Vietnam will become possibly a mini-China. In other words, whilst not being as big as China in economic terms, Vietnam could definitely be as successful and prosperous as China considering the size of Vietnam.
Ngoc Diep Hoang
Two reasons which are quite easy to recognise:
- Under the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP)’s policies, Vietnam's economic development has gradually depended on China, currently ~90% of Vietnamese manufacturing industry is depending to Chinese's suppliers of raw materials for manufacturing. Unfortunately, China will not be able to keep on supplying raw materials to Vietnam as China is facing more and more shortage of resources for its own needs. At the same time, Vietnam's own resources (mainly agriculture and aquaculture) are gradually reducing due to loss of harvestable lands and waters. Vietnamese manufacturing and exporting foreseeable future is as dreary as one can imagine.
- Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) is getting bolder in land-grabs and corruptions, one of the indications is the unstoppable national debts. See Vietnam GDP and National Debt
Even if the trade-war between USA and China gets worsen and both USA and China will lose quite significantly, Vietnam will still depend on China's supplying sources,
Quang Nguyen, lives in Vietnam
No and never. China is more than a country, it’s a longest dominant superpower in the whole civil history. However Vietnam definitively has chance to become a developed and advanced country, like Japan now.
The necessity conditions to be an economic superpower are LAND and PEOPLE living in that land. Roma, Mongol, Spain, UK, France, US, China, India had both but now only US, China, India can keep them. Russia, Brazil have land but not many people (maybe that change in the future?). German, Japan had land and people but for very short time during WWII.
Now countries’ borders are and will be almost fixed so Vietnam can never be able to have more land than it has now, so never we will be an economic superpower. What we need is to become a developed and advanced country and able to defend our current land and sea, kind of S. Korea or Israel. It’s attainable but not easy at all.