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quora:谁将成为中国和以色列冲突中的胜利者?

Who will win a war between China and Israel? Why?

谁将成为中国和以色列冲突中的胜利者?

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Eliezer Navarsky
The basic premise is ridicules... Both countries aregeographically separate to an extend that surpasses (by far) their ability toproject power... Compared to China Israel is minute... Both in terms of landarea and population...
Israel represents less territory and population then thesmallest Chinese province... China has tens of cities that are larger inpopulation then the whole of Israel...
There's simply no way for these two to get into a war...And, if it ever got there, Israel would put up a good fight but it would behopeless fro the start...

基本前提是荒谬……这两个国家在地理上都是独立的,超出了他们投射武器的能力。与中国相比,以色列是微小的……无论是土地面积还是人口……
以色列的领土和人口比中国最小的省份要少……中国有几十个城市人口比以色列多……
这两者根本不可能卷入战争……而且,如果真的打仗了,以色列会发动一场很好的战斗,但是从一开始就没有胜利希望…

Raphael Segal
Before you get any further, let me provide this bit ofcontext. Israel is the size of New Jersey. China is the world's third largestcountry with almost a sixth of the world's population. You're asking for amilitary comparison between those two.
With that in mind...
It's sort of a tricky question to answer, in part because ofthe general lack of conventional wars recently. Israel has permanent,asymmetric warfare being waged against them, with occasional operations toremove Hamas's missile platforms. China has spent a while shaking theirmilitary penis at the US and at their neighbors.
First, some facts:
Israel inarguably has the strongest military for their sizein the world. No other country even roughly their size shows up on the who's who of military powersexcept England, and they're scaling back their military to cut costs.
Israel's spent the last few decades fighting asymmetricwarfare.
Israel is made of reservists; an overwhelming majority ofthe populace could be called on with days' notice.
Israel has Iron Dome, the only effective missile defense ofits kind.
China has more money and manpower to throw at the problem.
But there are a still lot of unanswered (and unanswerable)questions:
Whose planes are better? Whose tanks are better? Whosemissiles are better?
Is Israel's technological advantage large enough to overcometheir lack of manpower?
What's the battleground? Israel has considerably moreexpertise fighting in deserts than almost every other major power, for example.
How is the fight being carried out? Is it an infantrybattle? A tank blitz? Dogfighting? Urban warfare? A missile exchange?
How are they getting there? Does one side have to haul assbefore the fight even starts?
Who's pitching in, if anyone? Does Israel also have to fendoff their neighbors? Is the US pitching in for them?
What's the objective? Are they going to start annihilatingeach others' populace, or is this purely a professional thing?
Imagine if they all got magically transported somewhere.Israel would probably win tank and aircraft jousts close to 10 times in 10. But,Israel's so wildly outnumbered that such information is surprisingly hard toweight.
So my answer would be that unless you artificially constrainthe question, there isn't an answer.
Besides, those two countries are very far apart. If Chinawanted Israel dead, they'd sell Hezbollah a nuke, instead of something with areturn-to-sender address like a missile or a plane.

在继续讨论之前,让我提供一些素材。以色列有新泽西州那么大。中国是世界第三大国,人口几乎占世界的六分之一。你需要对这两者进行军事比较。
考虑到这一点后……这明显是一个有阴谋的玩笑话题,部分原因是近来根本没有出现常规战争。以色列对哈马斯发动了永久性的、不对称的战争,偶尔还会采取行动炸毁哈马斯的导弹平台。中国花了一段时间在美国和他们的邻国面前挥舞着他们的军事武器。

首先,一些事实:
以色列无疑拥有世界上最强大的军队。除了英国以外,其它国家,即使是规模大致相同的国家也会出现在谁是军事强国的名单上,他们正在缩减军事开支以降低成本。

过去几十年,以色列一直在与非对称战争作斗争。
以色列是由预备役军人组成的;绝大多数民众可以提前几天接到通知。
以色列拥有铁穹,这是唯一有效的导弹防御系统。
中国有更多的资金和人力来解决战斗。
但仍有许多不好回答(和无法回答的)问题:
谁的飞机更好?谁的坦克更好?谁的导弹更好?
以色列的技术优势大到足以克服他们的人力短缺吗?

战场是什么?举例来说,以色列在沙漠作战的专业技能比几乎所有其他大国都要强。
战斗是如何进行的?这是步兵战斗吗?坦克大战吗?游击战吗?城市作战吗?导弹互打吗?
事情会到那一步吗?在战斗还没开始之前,一方就会忙的慌不择路吗?
谁来帮忙?以色列是否也必须击退邻国?美国是在为他们而战吗?

我们的目标是什么?他们会开始消灭彼此的民众吗?还是这纯粹是一种职业行为?
想象一下,如果它们都被神奇地传送到某个地方。以色列很可能在10次坦克和飞机比赛中赢得近10次。但是,以色列在数量上远远落后于其他国家,这类信息令人难以衡量。
所以我的答案是,除非你人为地限制这个问题,否则就没有答案。
此外,那两个国家相距很远。如果中国想要以色列灭亡,他们会向真主党出售核武器,而不是像导弹或飞机那样会被再打回去的东西。

Suiris Deepak
Depends on whose side Chinese people are on.
China has the largest economy in the world by PPP, thirdlargest land mass, largest population, a nation that have 800 million militaryaged males - which is roughly 100x Israel’s entire population including women and children, secondlargest military budget in the world for last 15 years or so. Unless Israel hasan army of Zohans, it would be impossible for Israel to defeat China if they’re really serious.

Suiris Deepak
这取决于中国人站在哪一边。
根据PPP判定,中国是世界上最大的经济体。它的陆地面积第三大,人口最多,拥有8亿能服兵役的男性,大约是以色列总人口(包括妇女和儿童)的100倍。近15年来世界上第二大军事预算国。除非以色列有一支zohan军队,如果真打起来,以色列是不可能打败中国的。

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