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美媒: 中国及文化冲突

(译者:Peng_Hanwell)

China and the Clash of Civilizations

中国及文化冲突

To recap briefly, after the collapse of most communist states in 1990, the world appeared to have entered a period of permanent peace. Stanford University-based political scientist Francis Fukuyama called it "the end of history," in which democracy and free-market capitalism would become the final form of human government. In response to Fukuyama's 1992 book, Harvard political scientist Samuel Huntington penned an article entitled "The Clash of Civilizations?," which he expanded into a 1996 book entitled The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. Huntington argued that now that the age of ideological conflict between communism and capitalism had ended, civilizational conflict, the normal state of affairs in the world, would reassert itself. His book concentrated on the "bloody borders" between Islamic and non-Islamic communities.

简单回顾来看,在90年代多数GC国家崩溃之后,世界似乎进入了永久和平时期。斯坦福大学的政治学家弗朗西斯福山称其为“历史的终结”,并称敏煮和自由资本主义将成为人类政服的最终形式。

作为对福山1992年出版的《历史的终结与最后的人》的回应,哈佛大学政治学家塞缪尔亨廷顿写下了“文明的冲突?”的一文。此文被扩展完善,完成《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》书于1996年出版。

亨廷顿认为,现在GC主义和资本主义之间的意识形态冲突的时代已经结束,世界事务的正常状态————文明冲突,将会重新浮出水面。他的书着急探讨了伊斯兰和非伊斯兰社会之间的“血腥边界”。

百度百科:
法兰西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama)生于1952年10月27日,日裔美籍学者。哈佛大学政治学博士,现任约翰霍普金斯大学、保罗·尼采高级国际问题研究院、舒华兹讲座、国际政治经济学教授,曾师从塞缪尔·亨廷顿。曾任美国国务院思想库政策企划局副局长。著有《历史之终结与最后一人》、《后人类未来──基因工程的人性浩劫》、《跨越断层──人性与社会秩序重建》、《信任》、《政治秩序的起源:从前人类时代到法国大革命》。他的第一本著作《历史之终结与最后一人》让他一举成名。

塞缪尔·亨廷顿(1927.4.18--2008.12.24),英文名Samuel P. Huntington,美国当代著名的国际政治理论家。早年就读于耶鲁大学、芝加哥大学和哈佛大学,1951 年23岁时即获哈佛大学博士学位,并留校任教长达58年,并先后在美国政服许多部门担任过公职或充当顾问。曾任哈佛大学阿尔伯特·魏斯赫德三世学院教授,哈佛国际和地区问题研究所所长,约翰·奥林战略研究所主任。曾任卡特政服国家安全计划顾问,《外交政策》杂志发言人与主编之一,是《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》一书的作者。

Huntington recognized nine civilizations, and as per his prediction, two of those civilizations are trying to impose themselves on the rest of the world. Islamic civilization got off to an early start with the World Trade Center bombing in 1993, following that attack up with demolition of the structure in 2001. But the Islamic effort will pale into insignificance compared to what China has in store. Countries that don't want to be dominated by China are at last organizing in response to that threat.

亨廷顿认为世界有九个文明,据其预测,其中两个试图将其文明推行到世界的其它地方。伊斯兰文明的进攻始于1993年的世界贸易中心爆炸案,瓦解于2001的攻击,但与中国的存在相比,伊斯兰的努显得微不足道。不想被中国所支配的国家最终会组织起来应对这种威胁。

Using Huntington's cultural divisions as a template, the world can be divided into three camps: the anti-China camp, the indifferent, and China. This graphic shows each group relative to the size of their economies:

以亨廷顿的文化区分为模板,世界可以分为三个阵营:反华,漠不关心和中国自身。该图显示了每个阵营的经济规模:

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The coming war with China will mark the end of globalism. In preparation for that war, the anti-China forces will attempt to shrink the Chinese economy using trade restrictions, starting with the Trump administration's effort to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China. The front-line states in East Asia of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan realize the necessity of this. The traditional European naval powers of the U.K. and France also realize that China must be contained. Both countries have announced that they will be conducting freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea.

即将到来的与中国的战争将标志着全球主义的终结。为了准备这场战争,反华势力会试图使用用贸易限制来缩减中国经济规模,始于特朗普政服努力减少美国与中国的贸易逆差,东亚一线的日本,韩国和台湾也会认识到这一点的必要性。英法两国的传统欧洲海军力量也意识到中国必须受到控制,两国都宣布将在南海举行自由航行演习。

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